Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 117.005217 134.559903 154.497407 178.950697 208.314783 242.667397 286.229185
2025-12-14 94.938969 117.223854 144.878709 182.201980 232.005012 297.258422 391.069011
2025-12-21 80.305954 104.275835 135.979172 181.911345 248.356174 343.600876 495.501719
2025-12-28 73.688648 99.862251 136.429218 192.821769 280.575283 417.346834 658.478059
2026-01-04 67.980979 95.462210 135.665116 201.079134 309.613294 492.053412 845.291898
2026-01-11 63.006010 91.220860 134.178057 207.460954 336.286430 568.495083 1060.139854
2026-01-18 58.174303 86.453503 131.015134 210.250135 356.905445 638.631509 1287.417012
2026-01-25 53.595914 81.467745 126.722310 210.186147 371.980988 701.458465 1522.765341
2026-02-01 48.889290 75.721531 120.393254 205.372843 376.782687 744.117985 1727.329503
2026-02-08 44.777808 70.526153 114.368593 200.147079 379.603714 782.971377 1938.747513
2026-02-15 41.287139 66.037431 109.064581 195.480993 382.606616 822.874340 2171.531603
2026-02-22 40.521873 66.178456 112.059447 207.587556 424.624342 969.523210 2809.952580
2026-03-01 38.358338 63.714007 110.115253 209.644700 445.066396 1069.881275 3370.313954
2026-03-08 36.659253 61.937240 109.288691 213.993517 472.214204 1198.951775 4138.262870
2026-03-15 34.618305 59.333517 106.554404 213.721258 487.742757 1299.915405 4877.903320
2026-03-22 34.133293 59.617559 109.598472 227.046868 542.465963 1546.861510 6549.612067
2026-03-29 33.333560 59.208263 111.158352 237.146371 591.140269 1797.196538 8574.147048
2026-04-05 32.372091 58.385171 111.742307 244.963057 635.449944 2054.715412 11047.980456
2026-04-12 31.121524 56.867172 110.655032 248.382700 667.365211 2281.131157 13719.674518
2026-04-19 29.706139 54.894185 108.359427 248.304263 688.211345 2473.141614 16516.785340
2026-04-26 27.991397 52.169449 104.116644 242.404680 688.296274 2573.293352 18718.373791
2026-05-03 26.380319 49.552070 99.892985 236.006806 685.372937 2659.852065 21019.398979
2026-05-10 24.942328 47.205376 96.094670 230.300640 683.746844 2754.064640 23689.474066